Carl Mortished: World business briefing
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Those pilgrim puritans are at it again, threatening to ban, regulate and smother all forms of risk-taking. After adultery, booze, ciggies and online poker, Americans have invented a new vice and its home is New York's Mercantile Exchange. Goaded by a pack of opportunistic United States senators who seek to ride the wave of public rage about fuel prices, the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is preparing a report on the role of speculators in the crude oil futures market.
Think about that for a moment. The regulator of a market that enables investors to bet on future oil prices is to investigate the role that speculation, that is to say betting, plays in that market.
Walter Lukken, the CFTC chairman, is to report to Congress in September. This is what he might conclude: “We have investigated the behaviour of investment banks, hedge funds, pension and mutual funds in Nymex oil futures contracts. We have found that, without exception, these groups are using futures for the sole purpose of speculating on the price of oil. We therefore conclude that to prevent this nefarious activity, we must shut down immediately the US light sweet crude futures market.”
Even so, Congress is not waiting and legislation is mooted that will deter oil futures trading. Like smokers, investors will have to stump up much more money for their oily habit in the form of bigger margin calls, and some politicians want to ban “speculators” altogether.
Could someone please tell the congressional ninnies that the purpose of a futures market is to make bets, to speculate, on outcomes to mitigate the risk of a bad price or to profit from a good one. It is absurd to distinguish a commercial investor, ie, an airline insuring against an increase in the cost of jet fuel, from the “wicked” speculation of a pension fund that bets on oil prices rising or falling. Every investment is commercial and a fund has as great a commercial interest as any other business in protecting its other investments from the negative impact of rising oil prices.
This separation of investors into sheep and goats is otiose. Weekly reports from the CFTC on open interest in the light sweet crude market indicate that so-called commercial investors dominate activity. Commitments by commercial investors exceed those of the non-commercial by four to one.
Among commercial investors, open interest is almost equally balanced between those holding long and short positions while there is a slight bias to long positions among non-commercial players, which might give some support to the notion that the banks and hedge funds tend to be bullish on oil.
And they have enjoyed a winning streak for several years. Oil is not a tulip bubble or a dot-com boom. Every day 87 million barrels of oil are consumed, burnt or transformed into other materials. Oil is essential to our lives, unlike the tulip bulbs hoarded by Dutch investors in the 17th century or the internet companies that had little revenue and no profits.
Oil is not a fashion - we need oil as we need wheat, more so because there is no alternative to oil.
If we worry that speculation is driving oil futures beyond supply and demand fundamentals, there is a reality check in the daily trade of physical cargoes of crude. Refiners and petrochemical companies compete for the cheapest crude of the best quality. Bids and offers for cargoes of Brent, Nigerian bonny light and Russian Urals crude are posted every minute on the Platts pricing service. If the oil futures price was seriously out of kilter with the underlying trade in oil cargoes, a canny oil trader could short-sell the market and make a killing. In other words, a bubble in oil futures would be swamped by crude oil overflowing from storage tanks. It would not last long, certainly not years of continuous price escalation.
The good thing about futures markets is that they offer a small angle on the unknowable world to come. That explains why some Americans find it abhorrent. The early British settlers who founded the Plymouth Colony in contemporary Massachusetts were Puritans, fundamentalist Christians who believed in the absolute sovereignty of God and the utter depravity of human beings, other than those destined for salvation.
It is a world view incompatible with financial markets where the future is not ordained but random and chaotic, a place where bad things happen to God-fearing people. It is interesting that the congressional attack on financial speculators is repeated in identical language in Saudi Arabia, a nation in thrall to a slightly different puritanism. American puritanism still bursts forth in moments of political and economic stress when libertarian capitalism confronts the moral straitjacket of the fearful and devout.
With threats to regulate London's oil market, the puritans are having their revenge against the British state that forced them to flee in the 17th century. Congress wants to close the “London loophole”, forcing London's oil market to abide by US regulations on limits to trading. Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate, is making similar threats to regulate oil markets. London is emerging as the last bastion of lightly regulated capitalism as America rails against evil financiers. A nation consumed by fear of foreigners, puritanical self-doubt and effete introspection cannot be the standard-bearer of global capitalism. It is left to Britain. It's a tough job but someone has to do it.
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Well hopefully these increased prices which are undoubtedly caused by speculation not demand as demand is hardly increasing will cause demand to fall. At this point the market will take over and the price will fall and once again these 'clever' speculators will be at a loss just like sub prime.
rob, ashbourne, uk
The real villain is big oil, which is using an inflated speculation price to set the daily price at the pump. They are not paying anything close to $140/barrel for oil entering production, hence the record profits they report quarter after quarter. Congress and the media have missed this totally.
Jack, Kentucky, USA
Why the pointless Christian bashing which showed your cluelessness on church history regarding the puritans? It is opportunistic politicians of all stripes and not puritans who are driving this idiotic over-regulation. Believe it or not you can actually be a Christian and believe in free markets!
Will, London, United Kingdom
well well well ....... the time will come when the price you sell is less than the price it cost to '...get' it ,will we stop functioning???......i wonder.
harry, manchester, uk
if the purchaser are aloud to continue to act like they are the guy at the auction who buys the painting and then turns right around and declares it for sale in the same auction we wil never have a fair market value on commodities that all economic levels of society could live with.
james raber, sachse, USA
If an airline wants to hedge their fuel costs someone else has to hold the other end of the "bet". That's where the speculator comes in. No speculator = no hedging.
Blaming speculators is like blaming the punters when a horse loses (or wins).
Paul, Santiago,
A factor not usually mentioned is the lack of shipping capacity to meet the increased demand. No matter how much you increase supply, if you cannot deliver it, you have a de facto shortage.
Allan Mawdsley, Brussels, Belgium
What a load of nonsense. The simple answer is to make it law that purchasers operating in the future commodities markets have to take delivery of the purchased materials.
The good guys get to secure future prices, the bad guys can no longer operate, no more crippling speculator led inflation.
Glenn, Brecon, Wales
I am very pleased to see that the vast majority of comments here are scathing of the speculators. It is not only oil that has been affected but also even more basic commodities such as rice. Making money by starving the poor is immoral.
Nick Ferriman, Bangkok, Thailand
Most on here dont seem to understand restricting speculation would curtail sellers as much as buyers, removing an important potential source of downward price pressure.
The assertion that hedge funds cause volatility was rather obtuse and naive, as was the simplistic assessment of fee income
Rhys Rogers, New York, USA
The purpose of the futures markest is to allow the producers to hedge against future risk. The speculatiors supply liquidity to allow tghta to happen. Thus the purpose of the market is not to gamble or speculate. Congress is right to investigate to markets.
Neil Murphy, cromer,
Commercial entities such as airlines use oil futures markets to hedge against a cost in doing their primary business which is flying passengers. This involves physical labour, tangible resources etc.
Speculators primary business is to have an opinion i.e. speculate. Not exactly real work is it?
William, London, UK
Prices are not increasing because of free trade they are increasing because of speculation by desperate financial services organizations trying to offset their losses from speculation about the value of Collateralized Debt Obligations or more precisely, Vapour Ware, created to boost their bonuses
Chris Coles, Medstead, Alton, United Kingdom
You have yet to notice that a gambling addiction, like all addictions, is self-defeating.
Julia Iskandar, London, England
banks and the rest lost huge amounts in the subprime crisis and are now making it all back through oil, royally screwing the public twice in the process. since communism's fall capitalism is getting sloppy/ arrogant about revealing its excesses because currently it's the only game in town...
andy p, st albans, uk
If a Hedge fund manager gets paid 20% of all profit but pay nothing back if they're wiped out, it creates a perverse incentive to create volatility.
I.e
$100m gain, bonus $20m.
$100m loss, no bonus
The hedge fund manager nets $20m for performance but still loses you $20m after charges.
Matt, cardiff,
This article was too sensationalist to be taken as a serious defence of the speculators.
However, I applaud the speculators for the damage they are doing to globalization. Mass migration, cheap transportation of goods and Free Trade will suffer from their unrestrained greed.
TJA, London, UK
What a crap way to run a world.
Will the spiv ever be replaced by a more mature way of of finance?
Peter Thompson, Barmouth, UK
The author doesn't understand the US very well. The elected politicians have to react to public pressure to "do something". Any politician who doesn't at least try, will very likely lose their next election. This has nothing to do with puritanism or religion in American culture. It's about the cost
Terrence, Washington DC, USA
Americas only hope of maintaining itself as a first world nation with reason and logic is to shut the door on its cultural aliens. Ideally it needs its own Putin to reign in the crooks, oligarchs and internal enemies.
keith bentham, wigan, uk
Very True. Every word in this artiucle.
Nailesh Patel, LOndon, UK
"What is the logic of 100% increase in crude prices when demand has not risen more than 2%."
Prices have risen not only because of an increase in demand, but an inelasticity of supply. Supply decreasing while demand increases is a potent force. The supply margin is only 1-2%
Alex, Paddington, Australia
The simple fact that in past 7 years, oil consumption has remained constant, supplies have not depleted appreciably, yet prices have septupled (x7) has alarmed even the most ruthless defenders of Capitalism, the Americans.
The FUTURES TRADING model doesn't work for MONOPOLISED commodities i.e. OIL.
Nicholas, California, USA
Has the US congress never heard of the gnomes of Zurich? As much as you try to legislate there will always be somewhere to bet against you. Good to see the US committing the same mistake as SOX and driving wealth abroad!
Ian, Tokyo, Japan
What is the social obligation of pension & universities funds ?
To rob whole world, increase inflation, poverty & hunger ?
This is precise they are doing. What is the logic of 100% increase in crude prices when demand has not risen more than 2%. Free economy does'nt allow you to recklessly speculate
sudhir Agarwal, Kanpur, INDIA
What good do these people do for anyone but themselves?
They only live to make money and offer nothing back.
Let them get real jobs where they actually contribute something.
RJG, Richmond,
American consumer greed, not oil companies or speculators are responsible for high prices. That greed wanted cheap goods at 5p an hour labour, and resulted in the industrialization of China and India. They then needed more and more oil, and market forces--supply & demand--cause prices to rise.
Bob Evans, Anaheim, California
What Congress really wants to do is repeal the law of supply and demand. It sort of reminds one of King Canute.
Chris, Boca Raton, USA
Speculators neither consume nor produce. Before some aspects of the commodity market were deregulated, trading practices pretty much followed supply and demand. What kind of risk is it anyway, buying at low margins oil that only exists on paper . Regulate these bums, by all means!
Tom, Los Angeles, USA
Ridiculous. Have you even been to the United States? Effete introspection? Xenophobia? If you look at the UK news section on this and other websites, you'll find neither is in short supply in the UK, The 'last bastion of capitalism' (if it exists) is Chicago. How do I know? We just bought the NYME.
Matt, Chicago, IL, USA
Why tarnish a sensible inquest to regulate Crude prices by suggesting the US seek to regulate all markets? Rank manipulation of oil production, storage, shipment and trading is continuing daily to all our cost. Are you being paid by Opec, an Investment Bank or maybe a Hedge Fund?
Will, Lincoln, UK
It is gambling, America regulates gambling so what is wrong with sensible regulation of gambling on commodities or stocks. I would like to see onerous regulation to limit pointless speculation and encourage real investment.
Terry, Radstock, England
Ridiculous. The US is not paralized by puritanism and xenophobia. Maybe you have noticed that Barack Obama may yet be president. Also, to discount that markets can be manipulated by speculators is to ignore recent history. Clearly this author just wanted to show how Britain is superior to the US
Ed Gill, Camas, WA, USA