Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Millions of Britons are feeling the pinch in higher mortgage rates, energy and food costs, and the big question being asked from City dealing rooms to sitting rooms is whether the party is truly over.
The peak of the consumer boom passed in the late Nineties, when household spending was growing at 4.5 per cent a year or more. In 2005 and 2006 spending rose by 1.5 per cent and 1.9 per cent. Last year it was a more robust 3 per cent but still much weaker than in the peak years.
Now, however, Britons are feeling a severe financial squeeze, sparking speculation that, as memories of the carefree spending boom fade, the country may face a much more marked consumer bust as economic downturn changes a nation that was cavalier over its spending into one of fretful, canny savers.
Households are being hit hard by sliding house prices, soaring food and energy bills, subdued income growth and higher taxes. As the cost of living climbs and property values tumble, consumer confidence has wilted, with the headline gauge of sentiment from GfK, the market research and information services group, at its weakest since late 1992, at the end of the most recent recession.
There are few doubts about the scale of the pressure on consumers. Food prices – propelled by surging demand in emerging-market nations and the impact of a falling pound on import bills – are rising at an annual rate of more than 9 per cent. Record oil prices, which have more than trebled since 2003, are driving up both the price of fuel and utility bills. Domestic energy prices are up 9 per cent in a year, petrol prices by 18 per cent.
Household incomes grew at an anaemic pace of 1.2 per cent last year, after inflation, and are tipped to grow by as little as 1 per cent this year. Households are also burdened by debt piled up in the carefree years, with interest bills now taking 10 per cent of incomes and total repayments 23 per cent. Even for those consumers with an appetite for further borrowing, the credit crunch means that loan rates are rising, despite the Bank of England’s cuts in base rates, while hundreds of thousands of people coming off cheap, two-year fixed-rate mortgage deals face higher repayments.
Falling house prices, meanwhile, are taking a toll of household wealth. The Bank plays down the direct link from house price falls to weaker consumer spending, but the slump in the housing market batters economic confidence and eats into the collateral against which individuals can borrow. Mortgage equity withdrawal – borrowing against the value of a property to release cash – is on the wane.
But what will be the real toll of this catalogue of misery on consumer spending? The evidence is mixed. Although there are mounting signs that anxious Britons are curbing spending, gloomy surveys of high street sales from the CBI and the British Retail Consortium (BRC) clash with more upbeat official figures, although these are questioned by the City and the Bank. Last week official figures showed that overall household spending (on services and goods) rose by a hefty 1.3 per cent in the first quarter, rebounding from a gain of a meagre 0.1 per cent in the previous three months.
Retail sales in April, on the official figures, were boosted by runaway sales of the computer game Grand Theft Auto IV. Yet the volumes of goods sold still fell by 0.2 per cent for the second month in a row, marking the first back-to-back drop for more than two years.
Better May weather has made for brighter trading times for some retailers. Debenhams spoke last week of “fantastic” conditions. Some economists, such as Stephen Lewis, of Monument Derivatives, also believe that the grim falls in spending shown in surveys such as the BRC’s may be exaggerated by their focus on so-called like-for-like sales, which adjust for increasing retail floorspace. By expanding their shops, retailers may be “cannibalising” their own sales, Mr Lewis says.
Yet many analysts believe that any residual resilience in consumer spending in recent months cannot last. Signs of strength, they argue, are likely to prove the last gasp of a boom that has long been on life support.
The pessimists may have a point, because the pressures on households are set to intensify in coming months.
The Bank is forecasting at least another 15 per cent rise in utility bills over the summer, while all but ruling out further interest rate cuts. Oil prices set new highs, above $135 per barrel, last week. House prices are tipped to continue tumbling and unemployment has started to creep up.
There is evidence that consumers are avoiding treats in favour of essentials. Industry surveys suggest that restaurants, bars and hotels are bearing the brunt as Britons opt for a cheap evening in rather than a big night out. If tough times have arrived for the hospitality sector, many economists believe that they can only beckon for the rest of the high street.
The average City forecast is for consumer spending to grow by only 1.5 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next, although some big institutions have forecast spending growth of as little as 0.6 per cent in 2008 and maybe even less in 2009.
For those Britons who still managed to make it to a bar or a restaurant over the Bank Holiday weekend, there may have been little to toast but plenty to lament.
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It will get worse much worse - I predict that 33% of workers will lose their jobs within the next 12 months.
R McAuley, Antrim, UK
Nu-Labour with the slogan "things can only get better" created this credit-frenzy, 24-hour drinking and 1 in 60 of us became Landlords.
Blair knew the wheel would come off eventually and left the "prudent chancellor " to carry the can.
In the mean time nobody noticed the stealth taxes-now we will!
steve, coventry, uk
Just a thought....
A well known supermarket chain sells its own brand 1kg size washing powder for 59p,a well known multi-national sells its version for £2.15p...
Duh !!!!!!
KEITH, BURY ST. EDMUNDS, Suffolk
Well folks,the good times are over,at long last !!!
Send the fancy tractors back,cancel the wine club,send the sprogs to state schools and learn to live within your means.
I resisted joining the "spend at all costs" club and paid off my mortgage instead.
Smug.... absolutely !!!!
KEITH, BURY ST. EDMUNDS, Suffolk
Mike in Harlow, I did, however I'll only be laughing all the way to the bank when I get a decent savings rate that keeps pace with real price inflation. Frugal as I am, I certainly do notice the extra costs on food. Is there anyone who doesn't?
Paul, Coventry,
So who used the good times to pay the mortgage down and off and is now living debt free?
Well those that did will be used to buying fewer things and, being in credit now with their bank, will hardly notice the increased costs.
They'll probably be laughing all the way to the bank.
Ha! Ha! Ha!
Mike, Harlow,
This article is biased towards having more of the past.
More of the past is unsustainable since everyone was spending someone else's money and now it's payback time.
Inflation is now the killer so let interest rates continue to climb until things are under control including house prices.
nazb, Peterborough,
Property Bubbles, Oil Bubbles; it's all so predictable in the Internet age of instant decisions and looking for the next money making opportunity. All are compelled to take part in the rat race, all are experts in every topic after consulting Google, all seek the illusion of an idyllic retirement .
john, milton keynes,
There could be another shock on the way. The banks have been engaged in huge face to face trading (gambling) in oil futures. These are unregulated and there are no checks that the participants can pay their obligations.
A shudder of volatility in oil could cause another sub prime crisis
David Nammory, Liverpool,
To add to what Melanie, Birmingham says - why should people like me get a massive £80 a week from the government just because I've been classified medically incapable of work by two doctors? After all, I only paid 40% tax for about 20 years while I was working - just like Melanie I'm sure.
Stratford Tony, Salisbury, UK
Now we have an oil price bubble where lots of guys are making lots of money and strangling the economy. Add that to the most obvious of cartels, the banks who move lending rates to mirror each other every day, having created most of the mess in the first place and it's hard to see anything but pain.
mark , surbiton, surrey
"10% pay rises all round I hear ! "
Back to the good old 70's then?
Well, we have the labour government I suppose.
Dominic, Manchester, UK
As they stop spending people will begin to realise that they can actually live quite happily without buying a lot of the rubbish that they have previuosly frittered away their hard earnt money on. Peace will descend upon them as they realise that the fever of buying for buying sake has passed.
Chris, Chipping Norton,
basically, you are just going back to what UK was 15 years ago: a sad, really sad place!
riccardo, brussels,
No payrise in 3 years and a recent 11% hike in my rent leave me feeling the pinch but I take heart from the knowledge that a large chunk of my diminishing income goes towards millionaire Labour MP Barbara Follett's window cleaning bill, and Margaret Beckett's £6,000 collection of potted plants.
Mike, Brighton, England
Why can't the government look into benefit scroungers? A lot of them claiming benefits but they also work and others are just too lazy to work, at the expense of tax payers? We are taxed too much in order to feed these scroungers, and in we who work hard can't even afford to feed our own families.
Melanie , Birmingham,
This doesn't stop the government wanting to increase taxes, just to increase the pain, whether Brown and Darling feel it or not.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
Visit us in America. Travel in Virginia where your pound will buy so much more!
Paul Gregory, Amelia,
Astonishing news. Chickens come home to roost. Amazing.
ngata te korou, kendal,
The weakening of sterling will accelerate as the country tries to deal with its hugh debt. Property is overpriced and central goverment lies about inflation will not lessen the Pain associated with increase costs and almost all comodities .
The good life based on borrowed funds is definately over.
john fawbert, burnie tasmania, australia
Not to mention the Government's budget deficit, PFI debts and the huge trade gap. We have lived on the 'never, never' for the past decade, but 'never,never' is now here. The challenge for all the political parties is to say how we are going to earn a living in the world in the next decade and beyond
Robert C, London , UK
Downsize the finances
Smaller expectations, wants and egos. Turn down the heating and get out the knitting. Foreigh travel is too expensive because of Euro and fuel costs. Just getting to the airport , parking the car, with airport snack is half the cost of the holiday budget. no more delays.
Goldfinger, Gloucester, UK
It's our enemy 'Big Business' putting the squeeze on the general public.
Attacking us in our pockets on things like food, fuel, energy.
Attacking our very survival.
Can't you see that!.
Time to fight back.
Buy the cheapest, even 0.1p cheeper will bring the prices down.
Buy CHEAPER and we'll win.
Sean Hamerton, York., England.
Whilst conceding that the financial wizards producing these learned articles have a good education, the reality of life in 'New Labour Britain' does not bear any resemblance to the doom and gloom that they portray.
Using the evidence of my own eyes, I would say that we have never had it so good.
esward leigh, wigan, england
People will once again have to learn to spend what they earn, not what they can borrow. This will come as a shock to many who have vastly over inflated views of their importance to scoiety based on their credit card limits. High petrol prices will reduce driver miles and reduce pollution.
Andy Brownlow, Perth, uk
Cost of living is rising for the people in the street which is not helped by the fact that we are paying for the 'not so honourable' people in Westminster.
barbara, north east,
well at least we can be sure that our parliamentarians are happy with their generous pay rises!!!!!while working extremely hard for this country!!!!!!
they have the cheek to demand 23000 pounds a year.demanding?!!!!
while the rest of us are struggling to make ends meet.
shame on you.do they get it!?
ebbi britt, valencia, spain
Couldn't agree more with Joe from Geelong. The problem in the UK is that people's lives and attitudes have become detached from global realities. Brits have been living in a bubble for far too long - but when did the world agree to subsidise a years-long party whose costs were never to be repaid?
Jeremy, Manchester, UK
Sliding house prices are only an issue for those forced to sell. Mortgage equity withdrawl should never have been allowed in the first place. The real income squeeze is coming from food and fuel price inflation, which is partly consequential of the BoE's deliberate Sterling devaluation.
Paul, Coventry,
We will all need pay rises of at least 10% just to stand still.The nasty decade has started I fear.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Not a problem, our political leaders will show us the way.
10% pay rises all round I hear !
The World is becoming an ever stranger place far removed in too many peoples eyes from reality.
Joe, Geelong, VIC Australia