First I have to say that oil representatives never lie! When they tell you there is not a supply problem you best believe them.
They are not in the oil business for the money, but for the good of mankind. Believe me. There is an inifite amount of oil and we will never run out. Believe me.

G. Pans, Slickerville, USA

Peak oil is not about running out of oil - it is about the rate at which oil is produced. The easiest to produce reserves have already been tapped. Most are past their prime, so production is declining. That means that the rate of flow is dropping. And that is what is happening globally.

Ray, Kula, USA

If the Oil is not about to run out who then is making such a fuss and why? How do they expect to benefit from this hoo har?
Is it 'cos Iran allegedly is going to be 'punished' and a shortage will occur as the market adjusts or is a 'corner' being attempted? Sort of ,'my Oil, my daughter?'

Horace Batchelor, Leicster, UK

Do the simple math: even at 32 billion barrels a day - and a need for 100 million barrels a day - that's 320 days ... 45 days short, for what the world needs right now. The falloff is half what they thought it was, but the demand can not easily be measured. We have to start diversifying now.

Steve, New York, US

Peak oil is a myth. Brazil just found 33 billion barrels of oil of its coast. Bakken in N.Dakota is said to have enough oil for the US for a 1000 years. Alaska has enough oil for the US for 300 years. etc...
Global warming "problem" is a myth. CO2 in the past has been 10 to 25 times higher.

Michael, La Jolla, USA

Now it's about time we have some mention of the 'Gull Island Myth' ... isn't it .... oh, and Fluoride mind control too...

PulSamsara, Chicago, US/IL

This is a totally irresponsible article. Despite escalating prices it is very telling that the world's crude oil output has not increased since mid 2005. The oil peak is the elephant on the doorstep or more likely in the living room. The gas and coal peaks are not far behind him, along with fresh water, uranium, arable land and with it, the peak in human population.

Louisa, Brussels, Belgium

Folks who believe in "Peak Oil" also believe that diamonds are scarce (they aren't), that Glowball Worming is real and scary (it isn't), and that the Tooth Fairy exists (I'm not so sure). As somebody has previously pointed out, abiotic oil has never been disproven, just as the "fossil fuel" origin of petroleum has never been proven. People are engaging in Malthusian hysteria on this and many other issues with the intent to gain control and power over the lives of other people.

skh.pcola, Pensacola, Florida, USA

Peak oil… indeed peak ‘everything’ if a mineral asset is a very real phenomenon… which we all including our political leaders choose to ignore.

And we badly do need inspired leadership now with a workable plan B… before the realities of permanent financial meltdown kick in. Not one culture or civilisation has ever survived chronic asset (energy) depletion… whether it’s simply been seasonal food, or silver as was the case with the collapse of the Roman Empire…

Its time for a swift move to an ‘electric’ based economy, a fully electrified rail network, sustainable urban/local farming and using the internal water ways once more for freight.

A. Deegan, Exeter, Devon

Someone once said the oil in a picticular region was full of sand, and if this sand was removed; it would last a very long time... also this earth has been around... all that was, is oil now. Truly getting it ,is the only problem. Right?

tio demonte, penn yan, ny

Still we have the blather about carbon and its alleged detrimental effects.
Human caused global warming is nonsense.
As regards new finds of oil, one might look at the reserves recently found in Brazil which are larger than the Saudi fields.
Peak oil is another "found" piece of garbage designed to further control the masses, buy into it at your own peril.

Graham, Hamilton , Canada

America is in the midst of a global energy resource war that is being orchestrated, and sold to the world as a military action to defeat terrorism in Iraq. Do you really think Americans care about democracy in Iraq? As an American, I think the value of sitting on 112 billion barrels of crude oil - 2nd to the known reserves of Saudi Arabia make it a sizeable prize!

America will be in the Middle East until the last drop of oil, or the viable commercialization of an alternative energy source and type of energy is made available for its exploitation.

Peak oil and its consequences are real and its knocking on the world's doorstep. I'll believe geologists: Campbell, Deffeyes, Bartlett and others over Daniel Yergin anytime.Yergin is not a geologist, but a Harvard Business Professor now acting as an energy consultant - Yergin reminds me of a home realtor showing me a house on fire and saying - oh its not that bad, it just needs a little work!

NA., Cincinnati, Ohio, U.S.A.

It's not in the interest of the Worlds big oil producers to have expensive oil because if oil becomes expensive tar sands will come into production and the big oil producers would then lose their monopoly. Their inability to bring down the cost of oil proves that 'Peak Oil' is here.

Mr G, Leeds UK, UK

Oil is abotic it's a non-organic Earth made substance due to high pressure in the mantle.

Most Oil wells are on fault lines it's easer to exstract.

C.Gran, Leeds,

Yergin has been wrong with his predictions over the years. $30 oil by the end of the decade predicted in the beggining of this century and all the other predictions that have been way too optimistic . It seems that whatever he says the
opposite happens.
Facts are - Oil is finite and it is more difficult to find and bring it quickly enaough to market to satisfy demand, at a price which our economy is based on to grow. This is why car makers planned gas guzzlers based on his false predictions and are suffering now.
Why does the price go up- so only the well of can afford this limited resource- and third world countries have to suffer as they did not budget for this.

Kaz, Melbourne, Australia

Agreed at 4.5% per annum depletion of "known oil fields" reserves would mean no more in 25 years or so.

But new fields are being found, maybe not as big as 50 years ago.
New ways of getting the oil out of the ground means getting a higher proportion of those out.

New technology, for example oil tar sands production, fuel economy and future developments are seeing world oil reserves rising.


Should also note this is only a short term pheonomn in future human developement. Must plan for day when oil becomes uneconomic.

Lets hope we rise to the challenge soon.

john laybourne, luton, uk

have a look at an interesting view on this subject ,google "the energy non-crisis "
my feelings are that the current price hike is politically useful to the establishment ,and we go along with it because we feel guilty for allegedly ruining the planet with that life giving gas (CO2) ,scam after scam we just can`t see the wood for the trees . there is more harm being done to the planet by these wars of aggression (e.g. dropping the equivalent of 40,000 hiroshima bombs worth of depleted uranium on the middle east and killing more than 1 million people on lies, i digress apparently thats not important enough for our media)
so many lies and so few telling us any truth.
i think there is a lot more oil than anyone is prepared to admit simply because it is economically and politically profitable ,as always.

stone, reading,

Unlike many in the UK, I grew up in a part of the US where I saw production rise then fall off. My parents enjoyed $.25/gallon gasoline (and less), and we enjoyed the odor of cracking towers at the beach. Texas was famous for red-necked wildcatters who got rich quick, while Oklahoma was full of Cherokees and other Native Americans cashing in. Where are they now? Why is gasoline in California now so expensive and driving so fraught with angst? Is it the "illegals" filling up the freeways? Or is there another unaddressed problem? I suppose the Chinese are about to have their moment in the sun. That will take some oil out of the ground and pay them for their factory work. I don't begrudge them, but I do not wish to starve to death either. My best hypothesis is the oil is running out in Saudi Arabia and that Ruppert's Rubicon and Shell Game by Alten are ways to explain the coup in Washington. It's a desperate problem.

Dianne Foster, Newton, USA

The production costs for non-conventional oils range from $14 - $35/barrel. Once you include coal based synfuels we have PROVEN reserves of hundreds of years worth of current consumption. If it cost $10,000/barrel to produce oil from tar sands, the Canadians would be going broke selling 2.5 million barrels per day at going market rates. Obviously the era of "cheap"oil is well behind us. Does that mean oil has "peaked"? Nonsense.

atheo, la veta,

Paul is right about the math, annual decrease of 4.5% means production in these fields drops to half in about 15 years. Newly discovered oil annually has fallen short of oil produced for going on 2 decades at least.

Don, Toledo, Ohio, USA

A BP Economist says that we will face peak demand rather than peak supply. So I guess we should overlook the added demand of 2 billion consumers in China and India, not to mention continued exponential global population growth. By dismissing peak oil as a fallacious theory, he is refuting the fact that oil is finite. Should Davies be known as a chief economist or a propagandist?

Mike Gallagher, Cordoba, Argentina

He said it was inconceivable that oil consumption would be unaffected by government policies to reduce carbon emissions. “There is a distinct possibilty that global oil consumption could peak as a result of such climate policies,” Mr Davies said

I'm missing something here. If we're reducing carbpn emmisions, I assume we're curbing our use of oil. If we're using less oil, it would push the 'peak' out, no?

This, plus the point Mr. Newborn made above and the fact that the price of oil has risen 5x right on Huberts schedule leads me to conclude that this is a "nothing to see here, move along" piece.

El.Kabong, Santa clarita, ca

Thomas Gold was possibly more correct than he was given credit . It was his view that oil is still being produced deep within the Earth. Some of his proof was depleted wells are constantly being renewed.
The greatest danger to all civilized people is being held hostage to offshore fuels owned by terrorist style governments and a hideous religion.They can bring the world to it's knees by cutting off our oil supply. We need and use oil based products for more than petrol.

Art Fuller, Kansas City, USA / Missouri

I've read that oil is not from fossils....
In the USA, the environmentalists are the ones that stop future drilling and more refineries being built....while they fly all over the place!

Bobc, Ky, USA

I'm unsure what the maths quoted actually means here - if oilfields are declining by 4.5% per annum then they're all but depleted within 20 years. As they seem sure we'll have adequate oil for decades to come, then this is presumably not the case?
Also, the oil tar sands etc. may be there in infinite quantities, but if it takes more energy to extract, transport, and refine, that you actually get out of it in a power station or car engine, then it's useless (and the same is true for all other 'difficult' sources).
The experts quoted seem to only be offering vague assurances; but bottom line is that if output starts to decline before we've got massive renewable and nuclear resources in place, then we are in serious trouble as a species.

paul newbold, sheffield, UK

Peak Oil is not about oil running out. It's about the end of cheap oil. Most of the remaining reserve is hard to get - that makes it more expensive. It also means it takes more and more energy to extract. That in turn means that it will become harder and harder to maintain flow rates (the number of barrels a day extracted). Unless reserves can be turned into flows, we have a big problem.

The financial markets do not accept that our ability to access energy is determined by the laws of physics first, only then, within those physical constraints, by politics and economics. They need to understand that it is the net energy and the rate at which we can use it which matter, not simply stockpiles and reserves.

Adam, London, UK

This article is based on the word of two individuals. CERA is reknowned for it's optimistic outlook, and there is a desire to calm panicky traders on the stock market.

There are few serious voices that doubt that we have reached a time when our oil demand is outstripping our ability to supply. And there are few new finds to replace our declining reserves. Energy Insights.net has excellent collected materials on the state of oil and other reserves, including quotes from the other Big Oil CEO's stating that they believe we are at around peak output. Even G W Bush admits it.

Demand may peak, but only because the tightness in supply and price growth has caused demand destruction amongst the poorer players on the stage. Discovery peaked in the 1960's. To meet IEA projected demand growth we'd need to find two thirds of all the oil we've ever found in history. The mathematics alone make it highly improbable that we'll ever sufficiently offset declines to reach 100 Mbbl a day!

Dr Jeremy Wilkinson, Nelson, New Zealand

Note that CERA are not saying peak oil is wrong, only that is not happening yet. Peaking at 100 or 117mbpd is still peaking, and peaking in only a decade or so after a relatively modest increase in production, especially given the voracious demand of growing China and India. As long as oil is finite and our demand is not, the peak oil argument can only ever be about when, not if.

Rupert Fausset, London, UK

In 1973 when I was just commencing my Business Studies degree at Lanchester Polytechnic, Coventry, one of the senior lecturers had a notice on his board outside his room. It listed a number of warnings that the world was running out of oil. Following each warning he had added a new oil find or technique that subsequently boosted reserves. It is good to see that he is still right after all these years. I hope he is still alive to se my comment.

Gwilym Ashworth, Pulborough, England

Good news for all, but still need a back-up plan.

simon gill, nottingham, england

Great, Now is the time to start euro-disobedience to force the withdrawal of Britian from the corrupt and undemocratic EC.
It is obvious we are unable to sustain the cost of membership thrust on the population by political low life at Westminster.

mike Durrans, Barnstaple, Devon

Peak oil is about the depletion of cheap oil, not oil.

There could be an infinate supply of oil, but if it costs $10,000 a barrel to extract, then its as good as not there.

Dominic, Manchester, UK

Yes but its a fuel we can't afford to use. All that carbon has to be removed from the atmosphere by someone at some point.
If not then we can go to our graves knowing we will be despised by our descendants for being the generation that cursed them to death by environmental collapse.
All of human hstory will have been shown to be a pointless struggle from the slime to the grave of extinction.

Keith Bentham, Wigan, Lancashire

Well Clarkson will be chuckling over his cornflakes this morning... that said, I'd imagine that all producers are pumping as fast as possible given the $100 price tag and this alone will have slowed the rate of fall of the rise in production (if you see what I mean).

Paolo Bagarino, Roma, Italia

Does this mean that oil prices will fall?
Doubtful.

E R Mann, Warwick, U.K.